Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 185.170406 226.459299 278.333934 349.687294 447.578442 5.807910e+02 7.825562e+02
2025-02-16 138.775688 185.715811 252.740055 360.081345 537.632173 8.411224e+02 1.458631e+03
2025-02-23 112.881082 160.464702 234.692379 367.661132 622.839676 1.155387e+03 2.612919e+03
2025-03-02 93.474049 138.476774 213.157020 358.362452 671.102306 1.443410e+03 4.255912e+03
2025-03-09 79.836448 122.113706 195.771082 348.879728 712.823310 1.761855e+03 6.916852e+03
2025-03-16 69.072992 108.266751 179.180323 334.652336 735.759299 2.061672e+03 1.089442e+04
2025-03-23 65.770515 106.630431 184.572874 369.108003 907.879855 3.136171e+03 3.041765e+04
2025-03-30 60.219752 99.869253 178.275187 374.194291 1000.718348 4.104180e+03 7.645833e+04
2025-04-06 56.455113 95.821313 176.621724 390.420840 1146.662313 5.806061e+03 3.394344e+05
2025-04-13 51.594451 88.905062 167.388918 383.220988 1202.448113 7.162261e+03 1.745710e+06
2025-04-20 50.258128 88.813463 173.341742 421.800022 1492.858200 1.237836e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 48.606673 87.803426 176.935435 455.270370 1811.149815 2.185455e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 46.489204 85.693307 177.926006 483.104966 2165.090478 4.121454e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 44.100168 82.678739 176.092747 501.109877 2506.613791 7.962191e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 41.737906 79.406702 172.943804 513.328846 2848.201208 1.650110e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 38.748499 74.338954 164.002573 498.951967 2948.749298 2.672072e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 36.086167 69.748646 155.658290 484.273688 3035.297759 4.520193e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 33.495273 65.067053 146.349720 462.340443 3019.688606 6.784254e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 33.245214 65.914134 153.093242 515.702343 4038.217077 2.473808e+07 NaN
2025-06-22 31.797888 63.691949 150.358650 523.646436 4532.793589 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 30.855542 62.613247 150.936257 549.101709 5458.253440 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.210435 59.608298 145.005220 537.786071 5697.986891 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.068990 60.407669 151.391575 598.801715 7959.047248 NaN NaN